Europe has ‘maybe six weeks of jet fuel left’
April 16, 2026
Europe only has weeks of jet fuel left because of the Iran war, the head of a global energy watchdog has warned.
A looming energy crisis is threatening to ground flights across Europe, with the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that the continent may have only six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining. This stark assessment, delivered on April 16, 2026, by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, follows weeks of escalating turmoil in global energy markets. The potential for a systemic jet fuel shortage has placed airlines, governments, and travelers on high alert, with significant disruptions to air travel anticipated as the peak summer season approaches. Some airlines have already begun canceling flights, citing the extraordinary rise in fuel costs.
The root of the crisis lies in the ongoing 2026 Iran war and the consequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supplies transit in peacetime. This disruption, which began in March 2026, has been described by Birol as the "largest energy crisis we have ever faced." The blockade has choked the flow of crude oil and refined products, including the kerosene-based jet fuel upon which Europe is heavily dependent. Around 40% of Europe's jet fuel imports pass through the strait, and with the last shipments having arrived in early April, the supply chain is now under severe strain.
The implications for the aviation industry are immediate and severe. Jet fuel constitutes about 30% of an airline's operating expenses, and prices have roughly doubled since the conflict began. In response, some carriers have started to pass these costs onto consumers through higher fares, increased baggage fees, and fuel surcharges. Dutch airline KLM has already canceled 160 flights for the upcoming month, stating that the high kerosene costs have made certain routes financially unviable. Similarly, Lufthansa plans to ground its regional CityLine fleet. Airport operators have echoed these concerns, with the Airports Council International Europe warning the EU Commission of a potential systemic shortage beginning as soon as early May if the situation does not change.
European governments and the European Commission are scrambling to formulate a response. The Commission has urged member states to coordinate preparations, monitor stocks closely, and consider voluntary fuel-saving measures, particularly within the transport sector. However, national responses have varied. Spain has announced a comprehensive package including VAT cuts on fuel, while Italy is also planning to reduce fuel prices. In contrast, some governments remain hesitant to intervene directly in the volatile market. The IEA has already coordinated a major release of emergency oil reserves from its member countries in an attempt to stabilize the market, but the long-term solution hinges on the reopening of the critical shipping lane.
The path forward remains uncertain and fraught with economic peril. Even if a resolution to the conflict allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, experts warn that it could take months, or even up to two years, for supplies to return to pre-war levels due to significant damage to energy infrastructure in the region. Fatih Birol has cautioned that the world is facing not only higher prices for petrol, gas, and electricity but also the real possibility of fuel becoming unavailable in some markets. The crisis extends beyond aviation, threatening broader economic stability through inflation and raising the risk of recession, with developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America expected to be hit the hardest.
Source: news